Oscar '05: DZ Oscar Pool percentages

According to DZ Oscar Pool entrants, Hilary will be going home with Oscar number two, making her part of an elite club consisting only of Sally Field, Katharine Hepburn, Vivien Leigh, Ingrid Bergman, Glenda Jackson, Jane Fonda, Bette Davis, Olivia de Havilland, Luise Rainer, Elizabeth Taylor and Jodie Foster -- the only women ever to have one two best actress Oscars (though Hepburn won four). Not bad company, and Hilary does it before her 31st birthday (only Foster and Rainer did it younger, winning both before they turned 30).

That is, if history holds true. The winners on Oscar night are almost always the nominees who get the most picks out of all the DZ Oscar Pool entrants. Occasionally a longshot ruins the predictor -- only three out of 70 people picked Marcia Gay Harden in 2000, for example. But here are the top three pick-getting nominees among 48 ballots received (don't get confused by the periods -- they're just for spacing purposes):

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY.....................................ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

58% Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind...............60% Sideways
19% The Aviator..............................................29% Million Dollar Baby
15% Hotel Rwanda...........................................10% Finding Neverland

SUPPORTING ACTRESS......................................SUPPORTING ACTOR

48% Cate Blanchett...........................................58% Morgan Freeman
25% Virginia Madsen.........................................19% Thomas Haden Church
13% Natalie Portman.........................................10% Clive Owen

ACTRESS..........................................................ACTOR

67% Hilary Swank............................................75% Jamie Foxx
21% Annette Bening........................................13% Leonardo DiCaprio
6% Imelda Staunton / Kate Winslet........................6% Don Cheadle

DIRECTOR........................................................PICTURE

69% Clint Eastwood.............................................50% Million Dollar Baby
21% Martin Scorsese............................................38% The Aviator
6% Alexander Payne...........................................10% Ray

No big surprises anywhere, though it's interesting that 'Ray' is the third-most vote-getter in the best picture category instead of 'Sideways,' which only one person in the entry pool picked to win the category. (But the 'Sideways' crew can always fondly remember their sweep of the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday -- the film won in every award for which it was nominated.) These results also suggest that there are no close races, the closest being best picture; in every other category, the leader is separated from second place by at least 23 percent.