Oscar predix: picture & director

DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Departed. Word is that Spielberg, Coppola and George Lucas are jointly presenting the best director Oscar. Hmm, wonder if the ceremony producers are banking on one of their estimable but un-awarded peers winning. So it looks to be Scorsese, who will win for a terrific movie and we can close that chapter. But I don't think he's a shoo-in, though. Greengrass' work on United 93 is kinda mindblowing, and Eastwood's epic double bill is kinda impressive...

PICTURE: The Departed. The toughie! Convention says Babel or Letters from Iwo Jima will win. If they pick Babel, they get to award Inarritu (who's a producer) an actual statuette. If they pick Iwo Jima, they get to give Spielberg his fourth and Eastwood his fifth. Oscar has never really touched a "gangster" pick, but The Departed was a massive commercial and critical success, recently came out on DVD and it's a damn good movie -- the best of the bunch, in my opinion. Again, I might be giving AMPAS more credit than they deserve...

TONIGHT! Live-blogging, starting pretty damn early. As soon as red carpet stuff begins. Comment early and often.